Empirical scaling of common verbal phrases associated with numerical probabilities
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
From Numerical Probabilities to Linguistic Probabilities: A Theoretical Justification of Empirical Granules Used in Risk Management
In many risk management situations, instead of the exact probability values, specialists use a granule to which this probability belongs. Specifically, they use five granules, corresponding to thresholds 10%, 40%, 60%, and 90%. In this paper, we provide an explanation for such non-uniform granulation. 1 Formulation of the Problem In risk management, it is often important to group probabilities ...
متن کاملThe Role of Vagueness in the Numerical Translation of Verbal Probabilities: A Fuzzy Approach
The paper describes a general two-step procedure for the numerical translation of linguistic terms using parametric fuzzy potential membership functions. In an empirical study 121 participants estimated numerical values that correspond to 13 verbal probability expressions. Among the estimates are the most typical numerical equivalent and the minimal and maximal values that just correspond to th...
متن کاملERP Correlates of Verbal and Numerical Probabilities in Risky Choices: A Two-Stage Probability Processing View
Two kinds of probability expressions, verbal and numerical, have been used to characterize the uncertainty that people face. However, the question of whether verbal and numerical probabilities are cognitively processed in a similar manner remains unresolved. From a levels-of-processing perspective, verbal and numerical probabilities may be processed differently during early sensory processing b...
متن کاملToward a Universal Translator of Verbal Probabilities
When forecasters and decision-makers use different phrases to refer to the same event, there is opportunity for errors in communication.! In an effort to facilitate the communication process, we investigated various ways of "translating" a forecaster's verbal probabilities to a decision-maker's probability phrases.! We describe a blueprint for a general translator of verbal probabilities and re...
متن کاملEmpirical Interpretation of Imprecise Probabilities
This paper investigates the possibility of a frequentist interpretation of imprecise probabilities, by generalizing the approach of Bernoulli’s Ars Conjectandi. That is, by studying, in the case of games of chance, under which assumptions imprecise probabilities can be satisfactorily estimated from data. In fact, estimability on the basis of finite amounts of data is a necessary condition for i...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Psychonomic Science
سال: 1967
ISSN: 0033-3131
DOI: 10.3758/bf03327890